Joba Belongs In Rotation

New York Yankees young hurler Joba Chamberlain should be used as a starter in 2009. At least until it is proven that Chamberlain cannot handle the work load.

It is not rocket science. The more innings a pitcher logs, the more valuable he is to his team.

Now that the Yankees have officially brought back Andy Pettitte on a one-year deal, though, the Joba Debate has again hit the front burner. Some fans and writers theorize that the addition of Pettitte—combined with the depth of Phil Hughes and Alfredo Aceves—opens up the gates for Chamberlain to move back into a relief role, where he has been dominant bridging the gap to Mariano Rivera to this point of his young career.

Not so fast.

New York general manager Brian Cashman informed Chamberlain in November that he will begin the year in a starting role—where he can add the most value to his club. The flamethrowing right-hander, outside of his brilliant run pitching high-leverage situations for the Yankees in 2007, has been a starter for most of his life, from his days as a prep/collegiate pitcher in Nebraska to his time in the minors.

There are certainly concerns about whether or not Chamberlain can remain durable pitching more than 150-plus innings. At such a young age, it is obviously in the Yankees’ best interest to be conservative with such a rare talent; hence the Joba Rules. Those in the relief camp cite this as key factor in their argument, saying that he is more likely to remain healthy pitching in the bullpen, where there will be less of a toll on his arm. He also has the make-up to close, they say, and is a potential successor to Rivera, who unseated John Wetteland after he left the organization following the Yanks’ World Series championship in 1996, as the closer in the Bronx. He certainly proved himself to be a worthy future closing candidate in ’07, when he posted a 0.38 ERA, 1,192 ERA+, 1.82 FIP, fielding independent pitching, clip and 0.750 WHIP in 24.0 innings pitched. The youngster quickly became a Yankee fan favorite, as the fans were enthralled by his demeanor, mid-90s heat, intensity and tremendous success. He did what any team wants out of a reliever, avoiding home runs and walks while missing bats; he struck out 12.75 hitters per nine innings, with 34 Ks against only six walks.

While there are legitimate injury concerns and Rivera cannot possibly pitch so effectively forever, though, why not give Chamberlain the chance to prove that he can handle the workload and stress on his arm that comes from pitching every fifth day? The bottom line is this: a pitcher with his stuff and talent could emerge as an elite front-line arm, adding depth to a pitching staff that is already among the best in the league. Even an average starter adds more value over the course of a regular season than a plus relief man, which is really the main thing to consider here.

Chamberlain, though, has a chance to be special even at this stage. Although it was a small sample size, he was effective taking the hill in the early innings in 2008. In 12 starts, he struck out 74, against 25 walks, while posting a 2.76 ERA in 65.1 innings pitched. Overall, he was again a dominant force in Pinstripes, producing rates of 10.58 K/9 and 0.45 HR/9 in 42 total appearances combined between both roles. The 23-year-old right-hander finished the year with a 2.60 ERA, 171 ERA+ and 2.65 FIP mark.

While injuries held him back, Chamberlain was lights-out when he was on the hill. His stuff is just off the charts. The 6-foot-2, 230-pounder threw his fastball 62.3 percent of the time in ’08, averaging 95.0 MPH on the radar gun. He mixed in a slider (avg velocity: 85.1) 25.2 percent of the time, and also flashed a curveball and changeup. While he certainly would throw with more velocity in short bursts (97.0 MPH avg fastball MPH as a reliever in ’07), he has shown the ability to sit in the low-to-mid-90s for multiple innings.

What GM would not give a pitcher with that stuff a chance to start if they can handle the duty? Sure, the Yankees have some other options, with less depth in its relief corps. However, the American League East is a division that may end up being decided by which is team is least affected by injuries, especially when it comes to starting pitching. It is unlikely that every pitcher penciled in the New York five will avoid going to a DL at some point. Whether it is the injury-prone A.J. Burnett or even Chamberlain, an arm will go down. It is a numbers game, though. Having more options prepares the Yanks better for any potential injury situation. Aceves is not exactly a sure thing to replicate his success, either, and there is no telling what New York will get from talented-but-inexperienced Hughes.

Plus, Chamberlain is good enough to emerge as one of the best starters on the roster as he continues to get more seasoning at the major league level. One good thing about the return of Pettitte and the other free-agent signings, though, is that he will not need to be. He can be put in a four or five spot, potentially missing a few starts here or there to limit his innings. If he does indeed get injured, he can always go back to relieving, regaining his title as the successor to Rivera. The all-time great closer is amazingly coming off one of his best stints ever at 39 years old, though, and still has a few years left in him.

In the meantime, the Yankees have the opportunity to see if they have something special in Chamberlain. Thus, there is no rush. He would have to be dominant in the pen to provide more value than if was even an average starter; the Yankees, therefore, have a much greater chance of winning the AL East with him in the rotation.

Most relievers are relievers for a reason: they could not cut it in a starting role, either due to arm trouble or ineffectiveness. The verdict is still out on whether or not Chamberlain falls into that category. The Yankees are doing the right thing.

Thursday Links:
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Leslie writes,

"Jennings’ tools all rate as average or better. An excellent defensive outfielder, Jennings uses his elite speed to chase down balls in center and has an average arm. At the plate he has the ability to drive the ball to all fields and has some power potential, although it has not shown up in games yet. Jennings’ strike zone judgment is also exceptional as he works counts well and isn’t afraid to take a walk. His willingness to take pitches and get on base coupled with elite speed makes Jennings a model leadoff hitter."

If Jennings can stay healthy, he is going to be a special talent. I am anxious to see what 2009 will hold in store for him.

Poster rglass44 takes a look at the 2009 projections for Tampa Bay relievers over at DRaysBay.

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Back at it with another edition of Around The Majors tomorrow. Devin Mesoraco, the Reds' first-round pick in 2007, is scheduled to come on as a guest. The show is at 1:00 Eastern on Thursday. Use the media player to listen live.